Here's my new contest.

Predict final domestic gross in the box office for the upcoming fantasy "Eragon"

sample - 152 mil. is 151.500.001 - 152.500.000.

The great prize - 500 000 vpoints win who will predict most appropriately.

Contest will be closed friday evening Warsaw time.

I know, we will wait for result several months. But it's worth to predict, because you don't need to bet and you can't lose your points.

It's really hard to predict such a number. That's why I will post here links, where you can find some suggestions.

This is about first weekend: forum thread (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=59486&sid=54954ca48ed1a65d0a8d10c026a9497d)

This is about Eragon (if you see simple 40/100 or 32/175, it means 40 or 32 - opening weekend, 100 or 175 - final domestic gross:
Eragon's forum thread (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=48959&sid=54954ca48ed1a65d0a8d10c026a9497d)

One more about Eragon's opening weekend (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=59993&sid=54954ca48ed1a65d0a8d10c026a9497d)

Maybe you'll find the answer here:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=liveactionfantasy.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=childrensbook.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=dragon.htm

Here's (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9829&cmin=10&columnpage=2) short one suggestion.

Here's (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9832) short one too.

How exact will you the bet? As an sample - 152.256.458,42?

No. I think just millions in your prediction will be fine.

As an sample - 152 mil.

Domestic gross means only Northamerica or only US?

Domestic gross means US and Canada.

um, tought one ..... without any looking at forums or whatever, I´d say 145mils

131 million will be my bet.

131 million will be my bet.

um, tought one ..... without any looking at forums or whatever, I´d say 145mils

that's a lot!!

:eek:

that's a lot!!

:eek:

Remember j7wild. This is all about FINAL gross (after all weeks release) not opening weekend.

This is hard :) 168 million.

Yes. I know. I don't have any idea how I would forecast this one :)

Come, come my friends and predict! So many points to win!

Final domestic gross: 200 million

with an estimated budget of $100 million, it better make some money fast and next week, the Christmas movies onslaught starts:

December 20
- Letters From Iwo Jima
- Rocky Balboa


December 21
- Curse of the Golden Flower


December 22
- The Good Shepherd
- Night at the Museum
- We Are Marshall

December 25
- Black Christmas
- Children of Men (limited)

furthermore, the bad reviews all over the internet from critics and regular people who seen it already is not helping it either!!

I predict $47 million tops!!

j7wild: $47 mil final gross or you mean opening weekend? I think this is your final gross prediction, but I must be sure, because of this small number.

All contest predictions:

st39.6 - 145 million
Jax - 131 million
michalz00 - 168 million
Haazhel_Thorn - 200 million
j7wild - 47 million

Now we'll wait few months for the results. I'll put here news about Eragon's box office.

First weekend - early estimate:

$24.500.000

If Eragon will have long legs, may reach $100mil domestic, but seriously... I don't belive. Night at the Museum coming next weekend.

Weekend studio estimate is worse than first: $23,450,000

I don't belive in 100M domestically, but 300M worldwide is possible.

Opening weekend official number:

$23,239,907

International opening weekend: $30.3 million from 76 territories.

The Christmas season was in full swing over the weekend with four movies grossing more than $10 million overseas. Leading the pack was Eragon thanks to the sheer scope of its nearly global day-and-date launch. The fantasy claimed $30.3 million from 76 territories but ranked first in less than a third of them.

Spain was Eragon's best market at $4.2 million, which was just shy of King Kong on the same weekend last year, followed by Germany at $4.1 million and Mexico at $2.3 million. Eragon was solid elsewhere if unimpressive, including Australia ($1.6 million), Japan ($2.2 million) and Russia ($2.2 million).

In the United Kingdom, Eragon was a disappointment, opening to a fourth-place $2.7 million from 429 screens, which was in line with last year's box office letdown Zathura.

Second weekend (3-day): $7,006,467

People! This is -69.9% drop! Bigger drop than... Oh My God! Alone in the Dark or Elektra...

after 12 days - $42,898,705

oooh, I picked $47 million, I may be right... the way it's dropping every week and pretty soon, it will be pulled from U.S. Theaters

:)

so how many weeks do we have to wait?

end of January? February?

:)

Maybe you predict less, but so close... I'm very surprised by Eragon's bo. And about your last question: end of march I think.

3rd weekend official gross: $10,843,779, that's +54.8% more than in 2nd weekend.

And after 18 days - $59,057,628

I have a very bad feeling about my bet.

You should :) There's no chance even for 100 mil.

4th weekend - $4,810,405 after -41.4% drop.
Now Eragon's domestic gross is $67,043,851.

:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:

Easy j7wild! I can't imagine $89 mil final gross (only when you will lose with Jax).

Easy j7wild! I can't imagine $89 mil final gross (only when you will lose with Jax).

I predicted $47...

It's now at $67...

I already lost!!

:cry:

I predicted $47...
It's now at $67...
I already lost!!


The great prize - 500 000 vpointswin who will predict most appropriately.

Your forecast is still closest to real gross. You're still the winner.

Your forecast is still closest to real gross. You're still the winner.

oh Slap Me Silly and Call Me Sally for NOT understanding the rules!!

:D :embarasse

In that case, I will keep my fingers crossed!!

:bow: :bow: :bow: :bow:

Stay tuned for the next numbers ;)

International gross is now $139.3 million. With domestic it's more than 200 mil. I think they'll make sequel.

5th weekend, 17th place:

$2,644,106, after 45.0% drop.

and now $70,811,997.

$75-77 mil... no more.

6th weekend, 24th place:
$1,175,713 after 43.3% drop

and now $72,343,373.

7th weekend, 31st place:
$555,331 after -52.8% drop

and total $73,198,144.

8th weekend, 33rd place:
$337,284 after -39.3% drop

theater count - just 420

and now $73,659,391.

You want belive me... :)

9th weekend, 29th place (advance!):
$321,888 after just -4.6% drop

theater count - 361

and now $74,068,828

10th weekend, 38th place:
$244,718 after -24.0% drop

theater count - 302

and now $74,393,494

I think it's almost time to close this!!

The DVD is coming out on 3/20/2007

http://www.keepmyfile.com/thumb/117236706418180a.gif (http://www.keepmyfile.com/image/18180a1424963)

quote: "Not yet, not yet".

:)

11th weekend, 42nd place:
$133,365 after -30.8% drop

theater count - 219

and now $74,573,402

is it time?

:)

As you can see, Eragon still have 100k during the weekend.

Patience my friend!

NOW?

:evil: :D ;)

Sorry my friend. I have no news about Eragon's closing. I know it's strange, but I saw miracles in Box Office, so I'll wait to the official closing date. :)

14th weekend:
still 46th place
with $60,211
after -22.5% drop
theater count: 106

Gross: $74,931,900

IMO. They are waiting for $75 mil.

15th weekend:
46th place
with $40,402
after -32.9% drop
theater count: 71

Gross: $74,989,944

Ok, Mithrandir, this is your predict, your points and your rules, but I think you can close this thing. I'm out, michalz00 is out, st39.6 is out and also Jax. Maybe Eragon gross 75 millions, but j7wild is still closer than Jax. And 80 millions or more is impossible.

Thanks for the contest.

Haazhel_Thorn and somehow j7wild:

First: Final is final. That's why I'm waiting for closing date.

Second: Look here (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=italianjob.htm). This is Italian Job box office. 13th weekend - $133,086, 14th - $3,946,271 with theater count bigger than in previous weekend by 1,900. Why? Studio wanted cross $100 mil mark. Deal from tickets wasn't then 50/50, but 25/75. Just 25% for studio, rest stay in theater. This is one of the BO miracles, which I know. They don't let me close this contest until closin date.

OK?

Ok, keep going. But I say, Eragon will never gross 100 millions. Never.

But... Same move like with "Italian Job" can give $10 mil more. In this case... possible winner will be changed :)

I don't belive in this miracle with "Eragon".

They've reached $75 mil...

16th weekend:
53th place
with $15,028
after -62.8% drop
theater count: 42

Gross: $75,021,527

It looks like "goodbye"...

17th weekend:
89th place
with just... $1,761
after... -88.3% drop
theater count: just 8

gross: $75,030,163

are we done with this?

are we done with this?

that's what I've been asking Mithrandir for months now!!

;) :confused:

are we done with this?
that's what I've been asking Mithrandir for months now!!

I'm sorry. I had no time last weeks.


Official results:

Close Date: April 8, 2007
In Release: 119 days / 17 weeks

Domestic gross: $75,030,163

Winner: j7wild with his 47 million prediction.

The prize (500,000 vbux) I'll send... now :)