Blockbuster Box Office Estimations

[Movieman]

How much do you think some of the big movies of this year wil pull in at the US Box Office?

Here are some of my guesses.

Batman Begins: 150M. Batman movies have always drawn a crowd. 150 is about the average of all the others.

War of the Worlds: 180M. Based purely on the takings of The Day After Tomorrow.

Serenity: 60M. Although I would love to say more, this just seems realistic considering the Budget (40M), the source material and the genre as well as the crappy release date. At least it will still be enough to get another one made.

Star Wars III: 400M. Based on the other films and the fact that this is the finale, this seems about right.

Harry Potter 4: 235M. These films seem to make a little bit less each film so this seems right considering the takings the #3.

King Kong: 195M. Would say less, but Peter Jackson should be able to pull a decent crowd.

Sin City: 65M. Not sure why, guess I'm going on Once Upon A Time in Mexico takings.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: 135M. Big Kids flick with Johnny Depp. Seems right considering the takings of Lemony Snicket.

Fantastic Four: 90M. About right considering the takings of Elektra, Daredevil, The Punisher and the Hulk.

Narnia: 200M. Lots of appeal and a top notch crew. Should do well.

The Ring 2: 100M. A little less than the first film's takings seems to be what ususally happens.

Mr and Mrs Smith: 120M. Lots of hype and two very popular stars.

Legend of Zorro: ??? Too soon to say really. But I'll say about 110M.

Saw 2: 50M. Should do about the same as the first.

Amityville Horror: 70M. Seems to be about right for supernatural thrillers.

Thats about it for now, my fingers are tired lol. What do you guys think.

[Kn'thrak]

i'd say alot more for Fantastic Four. It does open on a major US holiday. More ppl will go see it. MIB2 opened on the same date tho it was a bad movie... it did very well.

[JustRising]

wow, amazing!
so what about the hitchkiker guide to the galaxy?!

[Movieman]

wow, amazing!
so what about the hitchkiker guide to the galaxy?!

Well I don't know much about it and have not yet sen the trailers, but I'll guess about 70-100M based on the fact it's got some appealing stars in a comedic adventure and it's based on a very popular book.

[enkydu]

Thanks, Movieman...great idea.

Here are my guesses...in order of release (Note, Fantastic 4 is no longer opening on July 4th weekend)

March
Robots: $80M
The Ring 2: $80M

April
Sin City: $65M
Amityville Horror: $70M.
Interpreter: $50M
Hitchhikers Guide: $175M
xXx State of the Union: $80M

May
Kingdom of Heaven: $60M
Star Wars III: $400M.
Madagascar: $125M
Longest Yard:$125M

June
Cinderella Man: $125M
Mr and Mrs Smith: $100 M
Batman Begins: $300M
Dukes of Hazard: $60M
Herbie Fully Loaded: $75M
War of the Worlds: $250M

July
Bewitched: $125M
Fantastic Four: $75M
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: $80M
Elizabethtown: $50M

September
Serenity: $40M
Pink Panther: $80M
Corpse's Bride: $40M

October
Wallace & Gramit: $150M
Saw 2: $40M

November
Chicken Little: $150M
Legend of Zorro: $110M
New World: $75M
Jarhead: $75M
Harry Potter 4: $250M

December
Narnia: $300M
King Kong: $150M
Vengence: $90M
Memoirs of a Geisha: $75M

[oNEMOg]

Hear's my estimates. As we all know at least one big one will do half or worse and one small one will do twice or better. Guaranteed.

March
Robots: $95M
The Ring 2: $110M

April
Sin City: $75M (or better I hope, but it's pretty hard-R)
Amityville Horror: $60M
Interpreter: $45M
Hitchhikers Guide: $195M (thinking iRobot...but better)
xXx State of the Union: $70M (few people liked the first one, but Cube is cool)

May
Kingdom of Heaven: $160M (between Troy and Gladiator)
Star Wars III: $340M (this was my estimate for II)
Madagascar: $105M
Longest Yard:$100M (no idea really)

June
Cinderella Man: $90M
Mr and Mrs Smith: $135M (typical big star movie gross from last two summers)
Batman Begins: $220M (if they get a better trailer or two)
Dukes of Hazard: $80M (Starsky and Hutch)
Herbie Fully Loaded: $70M (Trailer looks surprisingly OK)
War of the Worlds: $235M (Huge concept, huge star, huge director)

July
Bewitched: $105M (star-driven comedy; Will Ferrell is hot still)
Fantastic Four: $130M (Trailer looks just OK)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory: $150M (Depp is really popular, and concept is weird enough to draw in many older people)
Elizabethtown: $no ideaM

September
Serenity: $50M
Pink Panther: $60M (if it's lucky)
Corpse's Bride: $80M (or more depending on how great it is)

October
Wallace & Gramit: $160M (will be big; should have good legs)
Saw 2: $40M (a little less this time)

November
Chicken Little: $110-200M (hard to say, because Pixar is not involved)
Legend of Zorro: $120M (all these stars are arguably more popular now than they were back then, and the original was quite good)
New World: $no ideaM
Jarhead: $no ideaM
Harry Potter 4: $220M (grosses are steadily declining, though quality is not)

December
Narnia: $200M (agree that it is a high quality production all around with holiday appeal)
King Kong: $250M (don't underestimate Jackson's drawing power, and the King Kong concept, especially when they're together)
Vengence: $no ideaM
Memoirs of a Geisha: $75M (not hard for holiday movies to reach this gross)