4 Chances to win AVATAR Predict Box Office !!

[Mithrandir01]

Box Office Guru prediction: $75 mil.

[j7wild]

reviews are good:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/SHOWBIZ/Movi...avatar.review/

[Mithrandir01]

Midnight showings first estimate: $3 mil

[goodasgold]

Midnight showings first estimate: $3 mil

That's a lower estimate for midnight than I thought it was going to be. I thought maybe around 8 to 10 million. Just shows how good I am at predictions.

[j7wild]

Midnight showings first estimate: $3 mil

well other movies had showings on Thursday starting at 7pm all the way to past midnight

Avatar only had midnight showings!!

that really sucked (and poor planning on the part of the Studio Executives!!)

[Mithrandir01]

I told you, it won't be massive...

$3.5 mil. estimate, second source says. It's good. Around 2000 sites, mostly 3D. Good, I think.

[Mithrandir01]

With $3.5 mil. midnight, weekend gross can reach $85 mil.

20th Century Fox has announced its official midnight screening gross of $3,537,000, including the 3D ticket price premium, from approximately 2000 theatres.

I also just heard that internationally, Avatar is huge in Australia with $4.8 million from Thursday and Friday combined, and running double what 2012 which did not have a 3D premium did there, or $2.3 million. (By contrast, New Moon opened to $7.8M.) In Germany, Avatar debuted to $1.7 million, compared to 2012's $1.4M. (New Moon did $2.2M.) In Korea, Avatar opened to $1.4, behind 2012's $1.9M. (New Moon made only $800K.) But in the UK, opening day was hit by snow so grosses are running behind.

Meanwhile, a giant snowstorm is expected on the America's East Coast, with 20 inches predicted for Washington DC.

I've learned that today's matinees are running about 10% better than this summer's Star Trek. But with 3D films, matinees are normally higher because a larger portion of the business is done via presales. Then again, Fox is warning that the weekend before Christmas can be dicey for moviegoing because everyone is more focused on shopping and partying. And weather is already a factor. But movies which open the weekend before Christmas tend to do better multiples than normal from opening box office to lifetime. While in the summer tentpoles tend to have lifetime grosses of 3 to 3.5 times opening weekend. Whereas movies that open the weekend before Christmas can do 4, 5 or even 6 times the opening weekend. So if Avatar were to do $75M to $85M this weekend, it could still get to a $300M-$400M lifetime.

[Mithrandir01]

Early Friday Estimate: $27-28 mil.

Weekend should be around $70 mil. (worse version) - $85 mil. (best version)

What is the difference?
1. Big Fanbase (possibility of saturday decrease)
2. The Storm (snow I mean)

[Mithrandir01]

Looks like jacques1400 will be the winner :-)

But I have chances for second place.

[Mithrandir01]

Very fresh...

Fox friday estimate: $27 mil.

Weekend - $70-75 mil. depending on impact of snowstorms in east.

[j7wild]

Very fresh...

Fox friday estimate: $27 mil.

Weekend - $70-75 mil. depending on impact of snowstorms in east.

when it snows, that's the best time to go snuggle in a movie theater




The Final Bids:

jacques1400 - 72.1 - 74 Million
Mithrandir01 - 78.1 - 80 Million
hlbimage - 88.1 - 90 Million
wirm - 90.1 - 92 million
Haazhel_Thorn - 102.1 - 104 Million
cyberg4 - 104.1 - 106 Million
goodasgold - 118.1 - 120 Million
Ravenhorn - 142.1 - 144 Million
stonecoldjedi - 144.1 - 146 Million
ClaytonMG - 156.1 - 158 Million
Jax - 176.1 - 178 Million
Hardkore - 198.1 - 200 Million
michalz00 - 206.1 Million (and over)

[Mithrandir01]

27 friday/ 25 saturday/ 20 sunday - 72 mil. weekend - I think those numbers are very probably.

[Mithrandir01]

Opening weekends with similar to Avatar's $27 mil. Friday:

QUANTUM OF SOLACE - $67,528,882 ($27,007,026 Fri)
300 - $70,885,301 ($28,106,731 Fri)
STAR TREK (2009) - $79,204,289 ($26,893,975 Fri)
SEX AND THE CITY - $57,038,404 - after 34% saturday drop... - ($26,771,052 Fri)

I think Avatar's opening weekend gross will be closest to "300" with small drop on saturday (around 5%) and bigger on sunday (around 20%).

[Mithrandir01]

Official Boxofficemojo.com Friday estimate: $27,000,000

[j7wild]

Looks like jacques1400 will be the winner :-)

But I have chances for second place.

actually if the final opening gross is between 72.1 - 74 Million, jacques1400 will be the grand prize winner and there will be no 2nd, 3rd or 4th prize winners