The 50 Movies of Summer

[enkydu]

Here's a comprehensive list of movies coming out this summer from moviecitynews.com.

I figured we could use this as a jumping off point for discussion on this summer's box office. What Movies do you think he's right about, which ones do you think he's way off on (over or under estimating)?

The $200 Million Club

1. Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
   Should be best of series
2. Shrek 2
   Family fun finds phenomenal funds
3. The Terminal
   Not a surprise hit, but a surprise mega-hit
4. The Day After Tomorrow
   The darkhorse of the big CG films... but also the most unique and clear concept to sell
   
   The $150 Million Club
5. Spider-Man 2
   The trailer doth protest too much. Biggest June/July opening ever was $73 million in much lighter competition
6. Van Helsing
   Hard to imagine it not getting here... but equally hard to imagine it getting past here
7. The Village
   Can't bet against Shyamalan, even without a single box office drawing star.
8. I, Robot
   Struggling through post, but unless King Arthur surprises, gets the benefit of following 3 action-free weeks
9. Around The World In 80 Days
   The biggest summer darkhorse... could fizzle if it just isn't all that fun
   
   The $100 Million Club
10. Collateral
    Cruise pretty much guarantees $100 million, quality could guarantee more
11. The Chronicles of Riddick
    Vin Diesel stalled... but smart sci-fi could find a place... if it's really smart
12. The Bourne Supremacy
    Damon gets quieter, action gets louder, adult theatrical and DVD audience waiting
13. Anchorman
    Will Ferrell takes off the suit and puts on a suit. How big a star is he?
14. King Arthur
    The biggest mystery of the summer... and not yet trying to get attention. Could easily move way up or way down.
15. Troy
    An R rating can be overcome, but WB doesn't have the Matrix level anticipation going for them this time
    
    Under $100 Million
16. Alien Vs. Predator
    This year's big late season genre entry... will have to be more than cool to hit 9 figures
17. The Manchurian Candidate
    A likely hit... but really for adults... could move up, ultimately, if it's really Oscar caliber
18. Dodgeball
    I fear this one... it could be a car wreck... but it could be pure, dumb fun and will be sampled by Stiller and Vaughn fans
19. Sky Captain & The World of Tomorrow
    Paramount will fight to make sure this is not a complete disaster. Or it could shock and go up to the $150 million+ group
20. Thunderbirds
    It's for the kids... much bigger stake for Universal than they had in Johnny English
21. Harold & Kumar
    Go To The White Castle A major dark horse that could move up this list into the high 70s or 80s
22. The Stepford Wives
    Satire closes on Saturday night... even if it's great... Bowfinger, plus or minus
23. Garfield
    Damn those kids... could this be bigger than any of us want to believe?
24. Soul Plane
    Fros and Hos... Goes, goes, goes
    
    Under $50 Million
25. New York Minute
    The Olsen Twins ring up more than ever
26. A Cinderella Story
    Hilary Duff has a following... at least, until the restraining order comes through
27. Catwoman
    Even a disaster will get $28 million from the geeks on opening weekend
28. Anacondas
    Young, dumb and full of venom
29. Exorcist: The Beginning
    Renny Harlin could always kill people... franchise will get attention
30. White Chicks
    Horrible make-up, but it Wayans' make money when dumb
31. Raising Helen
    Remember when Kate Hudson was a star... now that was a week!
32. Shall We Dance
    Remake of a great Japanese movie carried by the believe that the star is a non-dancer... not that Chicago really changed that
33. Benji Returns
    Could fall off the face of the earth... of could be The Passion Of The Mutt
34. The Notebook
    Nice movie... hard to break out of summer cesspool
35. De-Lovely
    It's just one of those things... no one under 40 has any idea who Cole Porter is
36. Garden State
    Searchlight's Sundance darling... great trailer, but the cult will be small
37. Cellular
    Fun cast... next in Larry Cohen's telephone trilogy
38. Sleepover
    Teen girl comedy... once again bashing the popular girls... good young talent
39. Breakin' All The Rules
    They're hoping that Jamie Foxx will be an Oscar nominee next year... not for this
40. A Home At The End Of The World
    Colin Farrell is the draw, low budget drama is the genre
41. Before Sunset
    Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy and Richard Linklater get back together for another ride
42. Hero
    A great, great movie that is going to barely, barely get released
43. Head In The Clouds
    The next film from Oscar winner Charlize Theron... period is tough, but some will go for her
44. The Clearing
    Redford.... Dafoe... Not too much excitement building
45. Maria, Full of Grace
    A well loved Sundance movie with a hispanic draw... could surprise, but small
46. Napolean
    Dynamite Fox's other big Sundance pick-up... the cult will be larger, but will almost all wait for cable and DVD
47. Two Brothers
    Jean-Jacques Annaud Follows The Tigers
48. The Door In The Floor
    Intimate drama with good actors with no cash value... hard sell
49. Mindhunters
    Escaping the shelf... heading for video
50. Saved!
    Comedy about arch religion... sa-tired!

[enkydu]

I'll start with my 2 cents...

I'll start with the obvious, I think he's crazy for not putting Spidey in the $200M club. Heck, it could be the only film in the $300M club.

I think Day After Tomorrow might suck and not perform...remember, it's written and directed by the guy who had all the creative control over 1998's Godzilla.

The only other one I'll address for now is New York Minute. I will not see this movie, but I think there are tons of people who will. I think this will be bigger than Princess Diaries movie with Julie Andrews and that made $108M. I think the Olsen Twins are a massive draw that very few writers recognize.