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  1. #1
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    CDs and DVDs are 'doomed'

    CDs and DVDs are 'doomed'
    By Tim Richardson
    Posted: 02/09/2003 at 13:02 GMT


    CDs and DVDs are doomed - so say those soothsayers at Forrester, who reckon that the "end of physical media is nearing".

    Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005.

    See http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/54/32611.html for the rest of the article.

    I think the reports of the demise of DVD are a bit premature.
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  2. #2
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    Re: CDs and DVDs are 'doomed'

    Originally posted by trailergod
    I think the reports of the demise of DVD are a bit premature.
    i agree. i don't think i'll stop buying dvd's just because of some movie-on-demand service.
    i guess this could be the end of video/dvd rentals, but i'll still buy a movie if i like it, an on demand service is no replacement for me.
    somebody told me you have a boyfriend who looks like a girldfriend that i had in february of last year the killers

  3. #3
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    what a load of bull****

    [MOD EDIT]

    Watch it!
    Last edited by Shrubz; 09-02-2003 at 10:04 PM.

  4. #4
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    I think my cable company now provides a Video on Demand service with it's Super-Ultra-500 Channel Digital Cable package.

    Thing is...with cable internet and digital cable TV....the bill works out to maybe $100/month. Too expensive. I don't have that much time to watch TV to begin with...and get this

    (for those of you who don't have Digital Cable or a Satalitte...here's a shocker )

    Over 500 Channels. There's STILL nothing good on

    I'll be buying DVDs for a while...

  5. #5
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    I can understand predicting the demise of music. People can download a song and it'll play on their computer in CD quality sound, (unless their computers slower than a Scoda) and can even burn them to CD for the complete package. With movies though you'll have to download them in low res DivX(Even high res divx is low res by DVD standars) because the ammount of time it would take to download a DVD quality VOB would be too long. Even then they'll need a high powered PC to play them well, and pay per view costs money every time so DVD sales wont be effected.

  6. #6
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    Well, DVD Will have to be replaced by something! more and more people are getting DVD RW's so more DVD's are being copied. Bad for the industry!

  7. #7
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    Bad, but not fatal. With music anyone and everyone has instant access to free songs. How long does it take to download a 3:30 MP3 off Kazaar? Mot long. I don't listen to much music anyway, but others I know download everything they like and burn it to CD.

    Now compare that to people who download 2 hour VOBS on a regular basis.

  8. #8
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    CD? Maybe. DVD? Not for another decade at least, until Blue-Ray becomes the next widely-used medium.

    'On-demand' won't work now with most people in the consumer society who are accustomed to buy and own physical things, which is why DVD-movie sales booms in such a short period of time.

    Not until the video sales market becomes saturated as the music sales market is now that the DVD medium becomes obsolete.

    BTW I still buy CDs, albeit old CDs which came out 10 years ago.

    "The idea was to be a symbol. editman could be anybody, that was the point."

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    my DVD/blu-ray List

  9. #9
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    On demand, I dunno... I like the features and little bonuses that come with DVD. I've got satellite, and it came with two free on-demand PPV movies... and I really don't plan on ever using them.
    Are you a Mexi-CAN or a Mexi-CAN'T?

  10. #10
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    I have digital cable and it's got on-demand movies in 5.1 sound for $3.95 per movie and you can view them all day, rewind, fast forward, pause, and stop them. The only difference between that and renting a DVD is the extra features (which they're catching up on) and the widescreen picture (which they may already provide for HDTV hookups). And this way there's no return to worry about. I think it's going to give video rental places a run for their money pretty soon. And we have the lowest digital package for $44.95 a month, which gives us 20 HBO's and Cinemax's and access to all the inDemand channels, so it's not much either. (Of course you pay per movie).
    Another cool thing is HBO inDemand, for $6.95 more a month they have 150 HBO shows and movies per week to choose from whenever you wanna watch them. We decided to dump that though, we have to start cutting corners with money.

  11. #11
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    Gee, sounds like an HBO commercial.

    Well, wait until 'on-demand' becomes as widespread as McDonalds in China or Australia, then you can start thinking about the demise of DVDs.

    Meanwhile, I'm enjoying my vinyl, laserdisc and cassette tapes thank you very much.

  12. #12
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    it wont.. people have always had an obsession with the "physical" which is why dvd's are pretty safe.. especially since authoring a dvd and incorporating special feats etc is more difficult than burning a cd... i dont think dvd will have much to worry about.. and people will always want to collect cd's


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  13. #13
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    The next step guess after BluRay is movies on credit cards. I'd think and the quality is as good as BluRay or maybe DVD. But that's miles off. Let's talk about the present

  14. #14
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    http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid...=digital_music


    welp... its getting bigger..lol

    LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester Research study released Tuesday.



    The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts to streaming and downloading.


    Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester researcher Josh Bernoff said.


    "The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because people will have access to whatever they want right there at their television set."


    While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10 million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households, the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output will slow.


    In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn. estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.


    CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.


    "The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying discs."


    Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution could be more gradual.


    "People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical storage issues."
    but we still need CD-R and DVD-R to burn what we download... and i want to physically have what i own...

  15. #15
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    The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the vinyl LP
    hm:
    they will have a revival?
    still many new releases each week?
    become collector's items?
    have great quality if mastered properly?


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