2008 United States Presidential Race

[redbear]

i was just reading this... interesting so far. I was wondering just how long Edwards was going to stay in the race, so im not too surprised about either. Rudy just has this weird vibe going on and it didnt seem like he was really in tune with anyone. i see Huckabee and Paul dropping within the next week or two at best. by my birthday for sure....

[Granite]

i was just reading this... interesting so far. I was wondering just how long Edwards was going to stay in the race, so im not too surprised about either. Rudy just has this weird vibe going on and it didnt seem like he was really in tune with anyone. i see Huckabee and Paul dropping within the next week or two at best. by my birthday for sure....

Actually, Ron Paul has been asked to run as a Libertarian should he lose the republican nomination (which if you belive polling, is almost a certainty)

[redbear]

Actually, Ron Paul has been asked to run as a Libertarian should he lose the republican nomination (which if you belive polling, is almost a certainty)

that's interesting...i didnt know that. dont know if that will help him or not.

side note....

John McCain will soon be basking in the glow of an endorsement from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But is another powerful supporter about to climb aboard the Straight Talk Express? California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will officially endorse McCain after Wednesday night's GOP debate, sources close to both men hint. Both the governor's office and McCain's campaign are maintaining an official silence on the subject. But if the Governator does pat Mac on the back, it would only add to McCain's momentum. Schwarzenegger maintains public approval ratings in his state in the 60s, and California is one of the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday. The two have formed a mutual admiration society over their respective efforts on climate change. Schwarzenegger's endorsement could permanently change the climate of the GOP race.

L I N K

[Mithrandir01]

I hope Barack will win.

[j7wild]

I am going to continue voting the same way I had since 1984...

[redbear]

I am going to continue voting the same way I had since 1984...

me too.... i count the boards on the side of the road. whomever has the most by the time i get to the polls, wins.


sorry, i had heard that on the radio the other day and just giggled my arse off.... i really dont do that. i use a special blindfold and dartboard.

[corfy]

My problem is I have yet to have a presidential candidate that I actually wanted to vote for. There have been many I wanted to vote against (and one time when I wanted to vote against both candidates), but never someone I wanted to vote for (although it came close last election, the nomination went to the wrong person, IMHO). I'm not sure if this year is going to be an exception to that yet or not.

[Granite]

I wanted to mention something for my Non-US friends. I mention in the thread starter of two major "third-parties" and I wanted to explain them a bit more.

While the US is essentially a "two-party" system (with Democrats and Republicans), two "third-parties" occasionally give them a run for their money currently.

Green Party:

"Greens emphasize environmentalism, non-hierarchical participatory democracy, social justice, respect for diversity, peace and nonviolence." (from Wikipedia)

Green Party Platform

Note: While Green's have yet to hold national office, they garner significant support in local, regional, and state elections. The highest serving position to date was in the Maine State Legislature. In 2000, 10% of the state vote for president went to the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.

Libertarian Party

"Libertarians state that their platform follows from the consistent application of their guiding principle: "mutual respect for rights." They are therefore deeply supportive of the concept of individual liberty as a precondition for moral and stable societies. In their "Statement of Principles," they declare: "We hold that all individuals have the right to exercise sole dominion over their own lives, and have the right to live in whatever manner they choose, so long as they do not forcibly interfere with the equal right of others to live in whatever manner they choose." To this end, Libertarians want to reduce the size of government (eliminating many of its current functions entirely)."

Libertarian Party Introduction

Note: Libertarians are currently the third largest party in the United States

[j7wild]

so Romney quit and the only real candidate left on the GOP side is McCain:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080207/ap_on_el_pr/romney

[corfy]

Technically, Romney hasn't quit... yet. I believe his name will still appear on ballots. However, by "suspending" his campaign, he basically isn't actively seeking votes anymore. No commercials, no advertising, no public appearances, but people in the upcoming primaries/caucuses can still vote for him as a legitimate candidate until he either officially drops out or McCain gains enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination.

Either way, I bet it will be over long before May 6, when the Indiana Primary rolls around, so I won't have any say whatsoever until the November election.

[Granite]

Campaign Update
2/8/2008

Republicans:

Current Contenders

John McCain



Mike Huckabee



Ron Paul



Alan Keyes



Current Delegate Count -- 1191 of 2380 needed to win -- It's ALL about the delegates

John McCain -- 714
Mitt Romney -- 286 -- Campaign "suspended" -- delegates not forfeited
Mike Huckabee -- 181
Ron Paul -- 42
Alan Keyes -- 0
===================================================

Democrats:

Current Contenders

Barack Obama



Hillary Clinton



Mike Gravel



Delegate Counts -- 2025 of 4049 needed to win -- It's ALL about the delegates

**Candidates get 3 delegates for winning a electoral district. There is NO bonus for winning a state, making winning a state irrelevant beyond candidate image. It is highly possible for a candidate to "win" a state and get less than a majority of the state delegates.***

***Democrats also have "superdelegates" who are not bound to support any candidate and are free to change their minds. Given the tight nature of the race these could become critically important. There are 796***

Hillary Clinton -- 1033 (current superdelegates 193)
Barack Obama -- 937 (current superdelegates 106)
John Edwards -- 26 (no superdelegates) -- campaign officially "suspended" -- delegates not forfeited

(***Note: there is some dispute about current delegate counts for democrats***)

====================================================

Next elections:

Feb 9th: Louisiana, Washington (caucus -- partial for republicans, full for democrats), Nebraska (Democrats), Virgin Islands (Democrats), Kansas (Republicans)

Feb 10th: Maine (Democrats)

Feb 12th: Maryland, Virginia, and the US Capital

Feb 16th: Guam (Republicans)

Feb 19th: Hawaii (Democrats), Wisconsin, Washington (republican primary -- partial delegates),

Feb 23rd: Virgin Islands (Republicans), American Samoa (Republicans), Northern Mariana Islands (Republicans)

Feb 24th: Puerto Rico (Republicans)

March 4th: Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

Delegate Counts through March 4th -

Democrats -- 1044
Republicans -- 609

[Granite]

Campaign Update
3/2/2008

---After a swath of primaries, cacuses, and other rather confusing elections, March 4th is closing in. That day Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island will vote.

At stake for the Demcrats are 370 delegates. Obama will need to pull ahead at least 313 delegates to counteract the possiblity of the Florida and Michigan delegates being seated at the party convention. Obama is currently roughly 100 delegates ahead.

On the republican side are 159 delegate. If McCain wins it all he will have enough to secure the nomination, however the contest types that will occur for the republicans make this not likely. Since Mike Huckabee has vowed to stay in the race until someone officially "wins", either Mitt Romney's delegates have to throw their full support behind McCain or it may wait till as late as May 6th (Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina will have voted by then -- accounts for 135 delegates).
==================================================
Republicans:

Current Contenders

John McCain



Mike Huckabee



Ron Paul



Alan Keyes



Current Delegate Count -- 1191 of 2380 needed to win -- It's ALL about the delegates -- (count source: CNN)

John McCain -- 1033
Mitt Romney -- 255 -- Campaign "suspended" -- delegates not forfeited
Mike Huckabee -- 247
Ron Paul -- 21
Alan Keyes -- 0
===================================================

Democrats:

Current Contenders

Barack Obama



Hillary Clinton



Mike Gravel



Delegate Counts -- 2025 of 4049 needed to win -- It's ALL about the delegates -- (count source: CNN)

**There is NO bonus for winning a state, making winning a state irrelevant beyond candidate image. It is highly possible for a candidate to "win" a state and get less than a majority of the state delegates.***

***Democrats also have "superdelegates" who are not bound to support any candidate and are free to change their minds. Given the tight nature of the race these could become critically important. There are 796***

Barack Obama -- 1369 (current superdelegates 185)
Hillary Clinton -- 1267 (current superdelegates 236)
John Edwards -- 26 (no superdelegates) -- campaign officially "suspended" -- delegates not forfeited
Mike Gravel -- 0

====================================================

[Granite]

Update: John McCain wins enough delegates to secure Republican Nomination





Now it's left to the democrats....

[Granite]

After a contentious primary in Pennsylvania on Earth Day (April 22), Hillry Clinton wins the overall popular vote in the state. Polls indicate that Obama closed the gap by up to 15 percentage points. Polls indicate that Hilalry won by no more than 10%. Due to Democrat rules the current standing for the delegates is as follows (according to CNN):

Hillary Clinton



Total pledged delegates: 1333
Total "superdelegates": 256

Total Delegates: 1589

Barack Obama



Total pledged delegates: 1491
Total "superdelegates": 233

Total Delegates: 1724

Next up: Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th

[redbear]

i had heard that the actual percentage was like 9.4 ... so he knocked her down quite a bit from having a 25% lead down to single digits ...